BCD Travel has published their 2024 Outlook Travel Market Report, outlining their forecast for key market indicators on the global travel economy. The report delves into potential economic risks to the travel market, as well as a quarterly look at air travel, hotel occupancy, transportation and sustainability in key global markets including North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa and the Middle East and Latin America.

Outlook At a Glance

BCD predicts that several factors will affect travel for 2024, including continued high interest rates, geopolitical issues, and bond market developments, with travel risks ranging from climate change to polarized politics and rising crime.

Despite these various factors, the market is likely to see modest progress towards recovery for air travel and hotels. Ticket prices are expected to fall by region and ticket segmentation across the board, with only the North American market seeing an increase in ticket price in regional and intercontinental economy tickets.

On average, BCD predicts a global hotel rate increase of 6.8% on average, with a slightly slowing market, but demand overall outpacing supply. Sustainability practices are expected to continue to ramp up in 2024 with a focus on more regulation, reporting and data, sustainable hotel choices and meaningful travel.

North America

• Average airfare ticket prices are predicted to increase by 0.6%.
• For hotel forecasts, the North American market saw mixed rates between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, with average ADRs in 2023 up 11% in Canada, a smaller 5% in the U.S., and a decrease of approximately 2% in Mexico.
• Across North America overall, BCD anticipates an increase in hotel rates of 4.7%, falling lower than most global markets.

Asia Pacific

• Average airfare ticket prices are predicted to drop 2.1%.
• ADRs in the Asia market have paced at dramatically different trajectories in 2023, with the Southeast Asia market rising by more than 30%, whereas the Southwest Pacific market only increasing 2.5%. BCD expects to see an average ADR increase of approximately 6.3% overall in 2024, with regions like Northeast Asia, China and India driving higher rates.

Europe

• Average airfare ticket prices are predicted to decrease 2.1%, comparable to the Asia market.
• Average Daily Rates (ADRs) for Europe rose approximately 9% year over year, with the strongest markets in Belgium, Bulgaria, France, and Poland.
• BCD predicts 7% ADR growth in 2024.However, if the ADR is adjusted to exclude Russia, the forecast increases significantly to 11.3%.

Africa and the Middle East

• Average airfare prices are predicted to decrease 0.1% in the Middle East and increase 0.9% in Africa.
• ADRs in the Middle East only saw an approximate 1% increase compared to pre-COVID numbers whereas Africa saw an ADR increase of 18% compared to 2019.
• BCD forecasts a 5.2% increase in room rates in Africa in 2024 and a significantly higher 14.4% increase in the Middle East. However, BCD caveats that the high levels of inflation in Turkey have a large impact on this number – if excluded, this rate drops to 5.2%.
• Events in the Middle East could significantly affect this market; however, it is too soon to predict the outcome.

Latin America

• Average airfare ticket prices in Latin America are predicted to go down 2.3%.
• Latin America saw significant growth in ADR in the first half of the year but levelled out for an average ADR increase of 9% in 2023.
• BCD predicts an 8.2% ADR increase in 2024. Market rate increases range from 5-10%, with largest increases in Brazil and Columbia.

For the full report, click here.

Written by Megan Henson